Climate change is predicted to have tremendous impacts on human societies in the 21st century. Consequentially, both decision makers and scholars are increasingly concerned about the security implications of climate change. More extreme weather events will result in more frequent and intense disasters like droughts, floods, or storms. Given that the number of armed conflicts worldwide is on a historic high, such disasters are increasingly likely to affect civil war-ridden areas, which are also highly vulnerable to climate change. However, as of yet, little is known on how disaster impacts the dynamics of armed conflicts. Will armed fractions exploit disaster-related grievances and state weakness to intensify violence? Or do disasters rather provide opportunities to de-escalate conflicts during an extreme emergency? The seminar will draw on comprehensive evidence from 31 civil wars in 21 countries across four continents to answer these questions.
Speaker: Tobias Ide, senior lecturer in politics and international relations, Murdoch University Perth; author, Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints: How Disasters Shape the Dynamics of Armed Conflicts, MIT Press, 2023
Hosted by the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies and the Columbia Climate School.
