The Lamont Earth Science Colloquium presents:
The varied future of upper Arctic Ocean properties as sea ice declines
with Dr. Hannah Zanowski, Assistant Professor, Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest warming regions of the global ocean. Climate models consistently project this warming to continue under climate change unless stringent mitigation strategies are put into place. However, as a new, potentially ice-free Arctic continues to emerge, what is less clear is how changes in natural variations in the climate system, known as internal variability, will impact future trends and predictability of upper ocean properties in this region. Here we use the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) to analyze internal variability in Arctic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) from 1850-2100. We find that annual and seasonal mean internal variability (demonstrated via the ensemble spread) in Arctic Ocean SSTs increases dramatically after ~2040 as sea ice cover declines, likely due to a combination of increased wind stress on the ocean surface and increased turbulent heat fluxes via a reduction in the damping effect of sea ice. A similar increase in SSS internal variability is not found. Instead, SSS internal variability remains relatively constant over the 21st century, despite changes in surface forcing and mean state.
Host: Dr. Galen McKinley, Professor, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (DEES); Deputy Director, Learning the Earth with Artificial Intelligence and Physics (LEAP), Columbia University.
The Earth Science Colloquium Series, sponsored by Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Columbia University Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (DEES), provides a lively forum for discussing a wide variety of topics within the Earth sciences and related fields. Colloquia are attended by the full range of scientific and technical staff at LDEO. Colloquium attendance is required of all pre-orals DEES graduate students. The Colloquium Series supports the Lamont Seminar Diversity Initiative.
