Title: Regional hydroclimate responses to warming: a paleoclimate modeling perspective
Abstract
How Earth’s warming alters regional hydroclimate remains a major challenge in climate science. Warm periods in the geological past provide valuable opportunities to observe how the hydroclimate system responds to warming under different external forcings. This talk will present two case studies from a paleoclimate modeling perspective to advance physical understanding and inform expectations of future change. Specifically, the two cases demonstrate that (1) Mediterranean winter wetting during the Last Interglacial (~127 ka) and mid-Holocene (~6 ka) was accompanied by circulation changes resembling a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, driven primarily by Indian Ocean cooling, whereas the local North Atlantic meridional SST gradient played only a minor role; and (2) the South Asian summer monsoon exhibits a consistent response across the mid-Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial, the mid-Holocene, and future warming scenarios, governed by the thermodynamic effect of global mean warming and the dynamic effect associated with regional meridional warming contrasts.
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