Events

Title: 40th Anniversary of the first prediction of El Niño by a dynamical model followed by a discussion of the current El Niño

Abstract: 41 years ago at Lamont we began to hindcast and forecast El Niño with a dynamical model. 40 year ago, in 1986, we published in Nature an El Niño forecast to be verified by the end of the year. In this talk, we will recount the understanding of ENSO and the modeling that made such a forecast possible, and the reasons why it should not have been successful. No doubt many are aware that a very strong (“super”, “Godzilla”, …) El Niño is underway. We will complement and compliment the 40th anniversary with an up-to-date analysis of this current event.